Subjective Bayesian testing using calibrated prior probabilities
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Obtaining Well Calibrated Probabilities Using Bayesian Binning
Learning probabilistic predictive models that are well calibrated is critical for many prediction and decision-making tasks in artificial intelligence. In this paper we present a new non-parametric calibration method called Bayesian Binning into Quantiles (BBQ) which addresses key limitations of existing calibration methods. The method post processes the output of a binary classification algori...
متن کاملCalibrating Subjective Probabilities Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models
Abstract. A body of psychological research has examined the correspondence between a judge’s subjective probability of an event’s outcome and the event’s actual outcome. The research generally shows that subjective probabilities are noisy and do not match the “true” probabilities. However, subjective probabilities are still useful for forecasting purposes if they bear some relationship to true ...
متن کاملBayesian Fuzzy Hypothesis Testing with Imprecise Prior Distribution
This paper considers the testing of fuzzy hypotheses on the basis of a Bayesian approach. For this, using a notion of prior distribution with interval or fuzzy-valued parameters, we extend a concept of posterior probability of a fuzzy hypothesis. Some of its properties are also put into investigation. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methods are also cla...
متن کاملChapter 4 Elementary Hypothesis Testing Prior Probabilities
John Craig was a Scottish mathematician, and one of the rst scholars to recognize the merit in Isaac Newton's new invention of \the calculus". The above sentence, written some 300 years ago in one of the early attempts to create a mathematical model of reasoning, requires changing only one word in order to describe our present attitude. We would like to think that our minds are swayed not by ar...
متن کاملQuantization of Prior Probabilities in Bayesian Group Decision-Making
In Bayesian hypothesis testing, a decision is made based on a prior probability distribution over the hypotheses, an observation with a known conditional distribution given the true hypothesis, and an assignment of costs to different types of errors. In a setting with multiple agents and the principle of “one person, one vote”, the decisions of agents are typically combined by the majority rule...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics
سال: 2019
ISSN: 0103-0752
DOI: 10.1214/18-bjps424